A natural disaster can present many challenges to infrastructure including but not limited to, loss of electricity, internet and cell phone service disruption, damage to road and buildings, a lack of drinking water, etc.  The intent of this blog post isn’t to discuss all the types of gear one may need in a given situation, but to discuss from a high-level what circumstances one may encounter, and use those likely scenarios to develop a disaster communications plan. 

When forming a plan, it seems a reasonable starting point is outlining one’s objectives from a high level.  For example, a primary objective could be something like moving your family to safety, and determining the best way to communicate with those in your immediate circle.   

When researching the topic of natural disaster planning, I came across a manual which included a paper by Bob Dyruff, W6POU, who worked with both government and volunteer agencies in disaster planning.

The following are scenarios from that paper describing the communications challenges volunteer emergency groups or government agencies may face during a large-scale natural disaster.  I thought it would be beneficial to list these talking points to get a realistic idea of what the impact of a disaster would be on infrastructure, and use those examples for planning on an individual level.[1] 

Potential Events During a Disaster

• A large increase in the volume of message traffic per channel are experienced on public-safety radios, accompanied by prolonged waiting to gain access.
• Equipment outages occur at key locations.

• A need arises for agencies to communicate with other agencies operating incompatible radio systems, using unfamiliar / unattainable frequencies, names, terms, and procedures.  In general, the management of most agencies is reluctant to use another agencies system or to allow theirs to be used by others.
• A need arises to contact locations at distances beyond the range of a given radio or system (50 to 350 miles or more).
• Message reply delays are experienced, leading to deferred decisions on crucial matters, message duplication and confusion.
• A need arises to generate and decipher handwritten messages sent through relaying stations.
• Alternative modes of communicating are required in addition to voice:
• Volume data in printed form, teletype, high speed packet, facsimile.
• Morse code under difficult reception conditions.
• Encoded data for extreme privacy.
• Television, mobile, portable, aeronautical, marine.
• Telephone interconnections from/to radio systems.
• A need arises to cope, simultaneously, with high- volume message traffic containing widely differing priorities (priority/precedence designations differ among agencies).
• Operational problems arise such as high- volume traffic circuits with no supply of message forms; using the only printed forms available, designed for a different, unrelated agency / function; attempting to decipher scribbling from untrained message writers; using scribes who cannot understand radio parlance or read through QRM; and being inundated with traffic volume so heavy it results in confusion over which messages are to be sent, were sent, received for delivery, or are to be filed for ready reference.

As you can see from the above examples, depending on the scope and scale of the emergency, communication systems could either potentially result in comms systems becoming log-jammed, or worse case failing and agencies having to move to secondary or tertiary comms. 

On an individual level, a disruption in emergency comms may cause delays in help getting to you.  The scenarios below describe the initial confusion and lack of information during the initial hours of a disaster.  On an individual level this may result in an inability to locate family members, friends, and neighbors.   

Potential Scenarios in the First 72 Hours

In the early hours of an emergency turning into a disaster, it takes precious life-ebbing time and an overcoming of obstacles to place fully- activated mutual aid resources into operating position in a disaster area.  Communications is one of the vital resources.

The greatest concentration of relief efforts is generally to be found in the incorporated cities served by agencies with paid professional; assuming their equipment, facilities and personnel remain operable.  On-scene commanders need to receive important information and aid to issue orders for action in the field.  Mutual aid requests to / from other agencies require wide-area communications not possessed by local agencies.  With telephones overloaded or out of service, and local government and public safety radio channels jammed, communications problems develop rapidly.

While urban areas experience more concentrated damage, suburbs and isolated areas of a county suffer from remoteness from fire departments, public works, law enforcement and the services of all other agencies as well.

All organizations scramble to respond to an unprecedented demand for service within their authorized jurisdiction.  The public is often isolated, unable to call for help or determine the nature and extent of the disaster so as to make plans to:

• Wait it out.
• Prepare to evacuate.
• Evacuate with some possessions to some safe place then unknown.
• Obtain physical aid for an impending catastrophe.
• Offer aid to a relative, friend or neighbor.
• Lack of information results in further attempted use of the telephone when the system is overloaded if still operating.  Calls can often be received from out-of- town but not made across town.
• Those living or traveling outside urban areas or in the unincorporated portions of a county are less able to receive essential services quickly, if at all, because of personnel being stretched over a wider destroyed area and encountering less accessibility and poorer to non-existent communications.
• The opportunity to call for help is often unavailable to most citizens during the first 72 hours.  Occasionally, a passing public safety vehicle or one equipped with an operational commercial, utility, amateur or CB radio can be accessed, assuming it is in contact with a person who can help.
• Too little information is gathered about the public’s immediate needs and ways to meet them.  Distorted public perceptions are gained through misinformation n.  Yet, essential damage-assessment report data are needed by higher agencies to initiate relief aid from outside the disaster area.
• Broadcast stations (those still on the air), initially disseminate rumors in the absence of factual information.  Only those people who possess an operating battery-powered broadcast band radio can tune until they find a local station which can provide helpful information.  Others receive such information second hand, if at all.         
• Everywhere, people walk aimlessly seeking a route to family and friends.  Many, fearful of looting, remain in hazardous buildings or return, as do shopkeepers, to salvage valuables.  As darkness falls rumors of looting are generated; some true.
• Word circulates about shelter locations.  Some displaced persons stay at homes of friends, relatives, or strangers.  Others are housed at public shelters into the fourth day still searching for family members elsewhere and without communications.  The opportunity to notify concerned distant relatives is not afforded except via Amateur Radio if such service is provided.
• Later, often too late, information trickles in about problem areas / cases which have been overlooked due to the lack of communications.  Some potential evacuees are overlooked.
• Once the immediate threat to life has passed, survival instincts prevail, printed “What to Do” instructions are located and followed, and people operate essentially on their own for an indefinite period while public agencies respond to the most urgent problems of which their communications make them aware.
• After-shocks, flare-up of fires, weakening or breaking of dams and new flood crests, build- up of winds, etc., result in some relief work being undone and the posing of new threats.
• Inter-organizational (multi-organizational) communication is poor to non-existent.  At the end of 72 hours, the disaster area remains in virtual isolation except for helicopter service for known critical cases and official use.
• Little centralized information is available.  Amateur Radio operators from neighboring counties / states offer to help but are often unable to cross the roadblocks established to limit access by sightseers and potential looters.  Disorganized local volunteers often lack essential skills and orientation.  Costly mistakes are made and systems bog down.
• The dead pose a serious health problem.  Stress rises among the citizenry.  Little overall assessment emerges in the first 72 hours about available emergency resources, and relief supplies.  Shortages are apparent and growing.
• Traffic continues to be difficult and slow.  Relief supplies trickle in to uncertain storage locations.  Some supplies are useless.
• Restaurants remaining open are unable to cook without gas or to serve the masses who flood them.  Food and water shortages have become critical.  Normal water sources may have been cut off or contaminated.
• Eventually, essential functional communications networks evolve as priorities, are asserted, and clusters of traffic emerge.  Relief efforts are mounted when someone takes charge, makes a decision and directs the efforts of others.  The Command / Control process of directing requires communication; the ingredient in short supply in disasters.
• At critiques following a disaster, as always, the cry is heard, “next time we must be better prepared.” 

The need for a combined response to communications emergencies has always been apparent.  Concerned amateurs regularly band together under a local ARES and local clubs or service groups in support of local agencies.

Over the years, there have been and still are some very effective Amateur Radio response groups working closely with the fire service, the Red Cross, Salvation Army, a group of hospitals, a city or county government RACES unit, a search and rescue team, and so on.

In some disasters:

• It’s the solitary volunteer who, alone and by chance, happens upon a disaster scene and serves with distinction.
• It’s a small, unaffiliated group of amateurs (or perhaps the Coast Guard Auxiliary, CAP CB-REACT operators) which responds with some assistance.
• It’s the sheriff’s RACES unit which responds effectively.

Increasingly, however (especially in large emergencies), it is the ARRL’s nationally organized ARES, which is being pressed into action in disasters involving multiple public and private organizations at more than one jurisdictional level across wide geographical areas; no longer simply single-agency or even single-community responses, but many operators working together in a joint effort.

It is ARRL’s NTS which is tasked with the high- volume outgoing welfare and incoming welfare formal traffic which inevitably attends disasters.  It is the local and Section ARES leadership which must provide the necessary coupling with these traffic operators, and the NTS leadership so as to make such communications possible and efficient.

The challenge to ARRL’s EC’s, DEC’s and SEC’s, STM’s and NM’s alike, is to integrate the efforts of ARES, NTS and other amateur organizations (MARS, RACES, public service nets, repeater associations, clubs) and non-amateur volunteer response units (CAP, REACT) in coordinated support of the many separate agencies serving in a disaster, and to do it in such an effective manner that the public is truly well-served.  That challenge has still to be fully met by amateurs and agency professionals alike.

Since no public or private institution is perpetually effective or enduring, it is up to the ARRL, through its widespread field organization and with active support from its executive and field leadership, to continue to introduce Amateur Radio to the ever-changing stream of new agency officials and to continue to build on- going, enduring relationships between ARRL and those agencies at all levels.

Amateur radio has served the public with distinction across the nation and the world for two-thirds of a century.  Yet so little is still known or understood about this life-saving capability by succeeding generations of officials responsible for the public welfare.  It is crucially important that this public service lifeline be universally understood and fully utilized at every level before the next disaster occurs. 

The above points provide insight as to what one may face during a natural disaster, as well as, the challenges both agencies and individual citizens may encounter.  It’s easy to get caught up in gear discussions or reviews when on the topic of emergency preparedness.  A cursory search of YouTube or any number of online forums will turn up endless debates and opinions on what type of equipment you should buy. 

In my opinion, worrying about what gear to purchase before identifying your critical needs and objectives is getting the cart before the horse.  It’s fairly easy to budget for and purchase equipment, but planning and logistics are the difficult part. 

Not everyone has the same learning style, therefore, what works in terms of forming a plan for one person may be different than another.  Some people prefer detailed documentation, while others understand concepts better through visual aids such as sand tables. 

If you’re not familiar with what a sand table is, they use “constrained sand for modelling or educational purposes.  The original version of a sand table may be the abax used by early Greek students.  In the modern era, one common use for a sand table is to make terrain models for military planning and wargaming.[2] 

This type of visual aid is still used by military planners today, as “it gives each and every person watching the demonstration a bird’s eye view of what’s supposed to go down.[3]  A sand table is an effective way of visually identifying flaws in a given plan, which helps you make course corrections.

Whether you prefer to have your plan in the form of written detailed instructions, or through visual aids, a good start in determining your critical needs and objectives may be in the form of putting together an area study. 

The objective of an area study is to build a working picture of your operational area, for the intent of implementing actionable contingency plans for all hazards.  Your area study can be as detailed or high-level as you want; below are some general elements for consideration.  

Types of intelligence:

• Open source (“OSINT”): Facebook, public records, public websites, videos and other media readily available and legally obtained.

• Signals (“SIGINT”): Radio, voice, text, data signals intercepted and interrogated.

• Imagery (“IMINT”): Photos taken of a person, place or thing of interest.
• Human (“HUMINT”): Human intelligence gathered from trusted individuals in the community.  Individuals must be a reliable source and their info must be scrutinized for authenticity.

Intel Flow:

Define Mission > Identify Intel Gaps > Generate Intel Reqs > Task Collection > Process > Analyze > Produce Intel > Disseminate.

Intel Categories / Sub-Categories:

Physical Terrain

• Mountains.
• Rivers.

Types of Physical Environment

• Environmental hazards.
• Forest fires.
• Earthquakes.
• Floods.
• Tornados.

Human Terrain

• Demographics of the area.
• Religions.
• Gangs.
• Organized crime.
• Militia groups.

Critical Infrastructure

• Power plants.
• Water treatment / water sources.
• Crops / food production / grocery stores.
• Communications networks.
• Roads and bridges.

Politics & Government

• Political leaning of the community.
• Info about politicians.
• Who elected leadership are?
• Laws on the books that affect you.
• Potential laws on the docket.

Law Enforcement, Military, Security

• Conventional fighting forces.
• Number of law enforcement.
• What kit they have?
• What capabilities do they have?
• Military units in the area.
• Federal law enforcement in the area.
• Private security in the area and their capability.
• Military installations and physical infrastructure.

Economics & Finance

• GDP of the area.
• Sources of income for the area.
• Poverty line and number of people below the line.
• Housing costs and housing types.

When putting a disaster plan together, understanding your environment will help you identify other danger areas or obstacles during an emergency.  For instance, in my area of the world, there are a lot of hills as well as a mountain range.  In some locations this makes line-of-slight communications difficult.  I have also identified which areas of my community have higher crime rates, and the types of crimes frequently committed in those areas.  If I had to travel with my family through certain part of the community, I know which areas would pose different types of risk. 

Once you have a handle on understanding your surrounding community, you can begin wargaming what the first 72 hours of a natural disaster in your area may look like by applying the previously mentioned scenarios.  From there you can identify a rally point, or possible alternates for family members to meet.    

If your primary goal during an emergency is organizing immediate family members and ensuring they’re able to communicate while moving to a safe location, then perhaps all you need is an inexpensive set of radios that operate on the Family Radio Service.  Many people use these types of two-way radios to keep friends and family organized while hiking or camping, and are a satisfactory solution for basic comms needs.

No matter how basic or complex you decide your communications plan needs to be, another tool for consideration is preparing a PACE plan.  A PACE plan is defined as, Primary, Alternate, Contingency, and Emergency.  The purpose is to provide a communications procedure during emergency situations.  Your PACE plan should detail the actions to be takenduring an emergency, to ensure plan participants are able to establish effective communications, and coordinate efforts according to the situation at hand.    

During my area study, I have identified the available local amateur radio and GMRS repeaters, and included them in my plan.  Included in my plan is a portable Retevis RT97 GMRS repeater for my vehicle so I have extended comms when traveling, and to aid in overcoming some of the terrain in my area. 

I am not advocating everyone should purchase a portable repeater.  This is just an example of comms equipment I have identified as useful in extending my coverage to meet my objectives.  If I were in an area with flat terrain and line of sight was more permissible, that would factor into my planning as well.      

A couple of helpful online tools in analyzing the terrain in your area are the line-of-sight tools RF Line of Sight and Hey What’s That Path Profiler.  When reviewing your area study, these tools are helpful in identifying potential communications dead spots. 

• RF Line of Sight: https://www.scadacore.com/tools/rf-path/rf-line-of-sight/

Allows users to easily drag-and-drop locations and obtain point-to-point line-of-sight information anywhere using Google Maps.

• Hey What’s That Path Profiler: https://heywhatsthat.com/profiler.html

Identify the path between two antennas.  First, generate a footprint map for your tower site, then click the map to identify the remote location, and see the path profile between those two locations.

I’m not an expert on disaster communications, have no formal or on-the-job training in disaster communications; however, it’s a topic I’m interested in and hope to gain more knowledge through ongoing research and discussion with others who have similar interests.  The content discussed here are some considerations I think are worth sharing when drafting of a disaster plan. 

I know there are likely many other considerations for a disaster plan that I either didn’t think of, or didn’t mention in this post.  The points discussed were intended to be communications focused, and didn’t cover anything related to first-aid, food, water, and many of the other essentials one may need during the initial hours of an emergency.  It’s difficult to document every possible scenario one may encounter, and articulate them without lengthy discussion.  I hope the discussion points above were helpful, and for those who are interested, attached is a sample PACE plan I put together.  Perhaps it will serve as a template for someone looking to get started on building a plan of their own. 

[1] [1] Some Thoughts on Disaster Communication, Bob Dyruff, W6POU (Silent Key): https://www.survivalistboards.com/d3/downloads/33316-disastercomm.pdf  

[2] Wikipedia, Sand Tables: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sand_table

[3] Why Sand Tables are Important Tools When Preparing for a Mission: https://www.wearethemighty.com/mighty-culture/importance-sand-tables-mission-planning/